Dramatic growth expected in natural gas demand over the next 30 years will be propelled largely by the electricity sector, Paul Greenwood, ExxonMobil's Americas gas marketing manager, told the LDC Mid-Continent Gas Forum Tuesday.
Electricity is "hands down the largest sector for growth," for the gas industry, Greenwood said at the Chicago conference, pointing to estimates that gas demand for electricity would grow 80% worldwide by 2040. Electric generation will account for roughly 40% of overall demand by 2014, he said.
Gas overtook coal as the dominant fuel source in the power sector for the first time this year, and the trend is expected to continue as coal-fired plants continue to be retired, Greenwood said.
This will result in a 1 billion ton/year reduction in carbon dioxide emissions over the next three decades, he said.
Demand in the residential and commercial sector is expected to climb about 28% globally by 2040 and industrial demand will climb about 30% over that time, Greenwood said. Still, demand in these sectors will remain "fairly flat" in the US, he said.
Greenwood said current gas demand estimates were unthinkable before shale technology advancements. Since 2008, the estimate of global gas supply has increased nearly 50%, to 250 years of supply at current consumption levels from 175 years, he said. "Our industry really is going through a period of momentous change," he said.
Source: Platts
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