Oil and Natural Gas Technical and Fundamental Analysis

Light Sweet Crude
The CL contract fell apart as it was announced that several

countries were set to release oil reserves into the markets over the next 60 days. This extra 2 million barrels a day should help alleviate price for the short-term. However, there are many who think this is simply a desperate action, and that the ability to do much more will be diminished. The countries will have to turn around and buy all of that oil to replace the reserves after all.
The market did bounce from the $90 level, a major support area. Because of this, we expect volatile conditions, but are quietly looking to buy at these lower levels, once we get the supportive candle we are looking for.
Brent
The Brent market followed the CL, and just like the Light Sweet Crude, bounced form a major support area. The $105 level has survived, and as such
could be considered a floor of sorts. The fact that the announcement wasn’t enough to break the market shows how strong the underlying trend really is.
We are looking to buy on supportive candles.
Crude Oil Daily Fundamental Analysis for June 24, 2011
Crude oil prices tumbled on Thursday, as pessimism dominated financial markets amid the grim outlook provided by the Fed’s Chairman, Ben Bernanke,
for the U.S. economy, as Bernanke signaled that the economic recovery is losing pace, while overall conditions remain weak. Moreover, rising
jobless claims last week fueled expectations of further weakness in the labor market, which weighed down heavily on crude oil prices.
Also, the IEA signaled it would help in supporting the global recovery by releasing 60 million barrels of emergency oil reserves for the third time
ever, which put huge downside pressure on crude oil prices.
We advise traders to remain cautious amid the huge uncertainty still surrounding the outlook, since confidence in markets remains rather fragile,
rising pessimism in markets should keep crude oil prices under pressure over the coming period.
Friday June 24:
Still, the eyes will be on the EU Summit and the full day of meeting and negotiations on hopes the leaders will be able to stem their differences
on the second bailout for Greece a decision of which has been delayed from the summit and likely till mid-July. Comments from the leaders on the
debt crisis and means to support Greece will be closely watched in the market.
At 12:30 GMT, the U.S. will release the durable goods orders for the month of May, where durable goods orders are expected to rise by 1.6%,
compared with the prior drop of 3.6%, while durable goods orders excluding transportation are expected to rise by 1.0%, compared with the prior
drop of 1.5%.
At 12:30 GMT, the U.S. will release the final Gross Domestic Product estimate for the first quarter, where GDP is expected to show the U.S. economy expanded by 1.9 percent in the first three months of 2011, rising from 1.8% in the prior estimate, while personal consumption is expected to expand by 2.2%, in line with the prior estimate.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis for June 24, 2011
The natural gas markets fell hard on Thursday, and bounced off of the $4.20 support area as we expected. However, at these low levels, it is difficult to sell this market, and it is impossible to buy it as the trend is down overall. We are currently looking for rallies to sell.
Natural Gas Daily Fundamental Analysis for June 24, 2011
Natural gas prices extended losses for a second day on Thursday after the EIA report showed natural gas inventories rose above expectations, where natural gas stockpiles increased by 98 billion cubic feet, compared with the prior estimate of 69 BCF, and above median estimates of an increase by 90 BCF.
We should expect natural gas prices to rise back over the coming period on expectations of warmer than average weather conditions, as demand for
power-plant fuel will increase, since that cooling demand will rise, and that will support natural gas prices to rise.
Source: Commodities Mansion