Platts: Survey of Analysts’ EIA/API Estimates Suggests a Draw of 2 Million Barrels in U.S. Crude Oil Stocks

Weekly oil inventory data to be released this week by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) are expected to show a two million-barrel decline in U.S. commercial crude oil stocks for the week ended August 24, according a Platts survey of analysts conducted.
The API will release its weekly report at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) Tuesday. Weekly EIA statistics will be released at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.
The expected decline in crude oil inventories comes despite the EIA five-year average showing U.S. crude stocks have tended to grow 2.7 million barrels during this reporting week.
At 360.746 million barrels for the prior reporting week ended August 17, U.S. crude oil stocks have fallen from a high for the year of 387.166 million barrels for the week ended June 15.
And while current commercial crude oil inventories remain 6.3% above the EIA five-year average, the differential to the five-year average has declined in eight of the last nine weeks, from 12.19% the week ending June 22.
Analysts suggest that U.S. oil inventories will continue to shrink even if refinery runs ebb slightly, as projected by 0.25 percentage points. Further, despite predicting a draw down, some analysts expect an aggregate increase in imports to limit the draw.
"Last week's data also did not show the typical rebound in imports which has occurred in recent years, so there could be a residual effect this week," said EOXlive analyst Tom Pawlicki in a note to clients. Pawlicki expects crude stocks to build slightly, albeit with slightly lower runs, "as several facilities approach the maintenance season," he said.
U.S. gasoline stocks are expected to fall two million barrels, analysts said, in line with the week-on-week change shown by the EIA five-year average.
Gasoline stocks have been seasonally very tight, analysts agree, although the differential to the five-year average seems to be abating slightly.
Meanwhile, analysts note stocks on the U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC) remain acutely tight. At 49.575 million barrels, USAC gasoline stocks are 11.28% less than the EIA five-year average.
"Gasoline inventories may fall as refiners clear out summer stockpiles," said Pawlicki. "Gasoline stocks typically end the summer with around 3.9 million barrels less than they had at the start of summer. This year's figure is still 1.7 million barrels above the beginning of summer due to relatively weak demand."
Although opinions varied, most analysts expect U.S. distillate stocks to remain unchanged, in line with the EIA five-year average.
At 125.210 million barrels as of the prior reporting period ended August 17, U.S. distillate stocks are 16.61% below the five-year average. As in crude and gasoline, the differential to the five-year average is getting smaller, meaning that supply tightness is alleviating slightly.
Increased seasonal demand for distillates ahead of the winter heating season, as well as their steady attractiveness for export, could lead to a decline in stocks, according to Carl Larry, president at Oil Outlooks and Opinions.
However, Pawlicki expects a slight stock build as demand continues to remain weak and production levels unimpressive.
"The last two weeks have seen declines in demand totaling 229,000 [barrels per day] b/d, while production last week increased 65,000 b/d," he said.
Source: Platts